Sunday, January 29, 2006

Never trust a scientist. Or an alcoholic.

Foxy: "Whatcha reading there?"
Cali: "Its an essay in PLoS Medicine explaining why most published research findings are false."
Foxy: "Wow. What's it called?"
Cali: "'Why most published research findings are false.'"
Foxy: "And why are they?"
Cali: "Well, the guy reduces it down to a pretty simple relationship between positive predictive value, error rate and bias; PPV = ([1 − β] R+uβR )/( R+ α − β R+u−uα +uβR )"
Foxy: "What?"
Cali: "PPV = ([1 − β] R+uβR )/( R+ α − β R+u−uα +uβR )"
Foxy: "And, umm, what does that mean?"
Cali: "I've got no fucking idea. But, still, are you surprised?"
Foxy: "That more than half of all published science is wrong? Not really. Most scientists use blind faith as a benchmark, arrogance as their guide and follow trends with all the awareness of a fourteen year old girl walking into Abercrombie and Fitch. No, not really surprised."
Cali: "Of course publication, or numbers of publications, are the currency of scientific careers, so its not likely to change. Maybe if those who regularly publish results later proven to be false were to face some kind of consequence?"
Foxy: "Yeah, make em appear on Oprah; 'I feel duped'. Did you see Frey last week? Looked like someone had sprinkled coke on his cornflakes."
Cali: "But she didn't ask the question that really needed answering - if he told a million little lies about his past life and relationships, did he also lie about the road to his recovery? Did he really travel it alone, without the twelve steps and a serenity prayer to his higher power? Inquiring alcoholic minds need to know."
Foxy: "A few persuasive words from the associates of his friend Leonard might be a more effective way to the truth. Another trip to the dentist's chair maybe?"
Cali: "Couldn't be much more painful than Oprah's couch. Who can you trust these days though?"
Tom: "Me! Me! Trust me!"
Foxy: "Oh for fucksake. Did you let him in?"
Cali: "No, he must have been hiding in the closet. So you're here to tell us the Truth, Tom?"
Tom: "You can't handle the truth!"
Foxy: "That wasn't you Tom, that was Jack shouting at you. And, no offence Tom, but you're no Jack."
Tom: "I'm no Jack, I'm Tom! I'm Tom!"
Cali: "Jesus. Can you get him off the couch and back into the closet? I'm off for a drink."
Foxy: "You quit drinking, remember?"
Cali: "Whatever. Maybe I was lying ....."

23 comments:

SeizeTheNite said...

"Jesus. Can you get him off the couch and back into the closet?"

brilliant.
:)

SuperP. said...

'off the couch and back into the closet'.. LOL

Alcoholics are the most reliable people I know. We drink. And, we are reliable with that fact. If you can get us passionate about anything else the way we are about that, we are amazing. But, don't expect us to be on time, or neccessarily tell the truth the way you want to hear it.

If you lied.. don't worry, Cali. I've quit drinking a few times. A few..

It gets easier.. once you get sober, you've already ruined the drunk.

SuperP. said...

where are you, Cali??

MoMo said...

thanks, stn

no, i didn't lie, penny - still sober, still here

SuperP. said...

It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false.

..is this true?

I read this article, via Foxy..

ps.. I thought, somehow, you were.. but, thought I'd offer support just in case. Good work.

Anonymous said...

nice to have you back! i've been MIA myself, but I still lurk around to see what everyone's up to...

MoMo said...

actually i don't know if its true, penny - of course if the article is correct, then it follows that its probably false. if you see what i mean.

indeed u have been mia, lb - hi!

generic valium - yay!

SeizeTheNite said...

I think it's about time for a new post here...

:)

SuperP. said...

doo..doo..doo..dooooooo..doo.dooo..doo...doo....doo.

SuperP. said...

Every day I'm going to comment.. until you are back here with something new to say..

It's funny, isn't it? When we are happy, in love, sober, content.. anything that resembles anything painless.. we are fruitless in our writing..

I suppose our want to share our tears, secrets, fears and wonderings creates solidarity. I suppose our happiness is just fine as it is, within us, on our own in our joy-bubble or our domesticated-redundant-bubble, which is where our time and effort should be better used.

I suppose it all makes sense.

But, I drank caffiene at 8pm.. and it's now 2:23 a.m. and I don't have any Cali to read. How sad.

SuperP. said...

dum de dumm dumm dee dee dum...

MoMo said...

you were serious!
okay, okay, i'll post something.

NYPinTA said...

I'm jumping on the 'more Cali' bandwagon.

A haiku:

Oh Calismanic
Our Foxy Foxy blogger
Please won't you post soon.

SuperP. said...

Cali's In The Valley
And, Canada Is Calling
Back To Blogging Please

SuperP. said...

why must we grovel
to read all that is novel
happening with you

(hope you don't mind nypinta)

:)


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SuperP. said...

Seems This Is A Game Gone
On Way Too Long, Long Before
Patient Deserved Post


yup.. I didn't say I was good at them.

by the way.. is there a way that we all in our little blogo'bubble should/could be notified, say, if one of us died?

Have you gone and died, Cali?

I am beginning to feel a bit pseudo-stalkerish..

SeizeTheNite said...

still waiting...........
:)

SuperP. said...

I am rerunning
double-tripping on old words
dusty silver-tongue


yup.. the archives are good, but current is better.. you ever read an old newspaper at a doctor's office?

NYPinTA said...

LOL. Haikus are like bunnies!

SuperP. said...

The Quorum Is Less
One Voice Pontificating
For The Rest To Read


ou est tu?

SuperP. said...

Communication.
With-held. Time: An enemy
No Minutes To Blog?

Can you punctuate a haiku?

SuperP. said...

Every Second Day
Though I Said It Would Be More
Though We're Here You're Not.

SuperP. said...

Few Minutes To Surf
Click Check Later Refresh It
I Give Up I Do


OkyDoky.. feel way to creepy for my own good, now. That is the last of my horrid haikus. :)

See you when next you post.